ABSTRACT
Background Relatively few conservation-based studies have explicitly quantified the extent to which population dynamics are consistent with local impacts. The greater sage grouse is a large sexually dimorphic tetraonid that is endemic to the sagebrush habitat of western North America.
Methods Local and population models were used to examine whether the local effects of oil and gas result in a population-level response. The local effect of the areal disturbance within 6.44 km of individual leks was assessed using generalized linear mixed models. The population-level response was quantified using population dynamic models. An information-theoretic approach was adopted.
Results The results for both the Pinedale Planning Area and the state of Wyoming indicate that while the local areal disturbance was an important negative predictor of the lek counts between 1997 and 2012, the population dynamics over the same period were primarily driven by the climate as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.
Conclusions If the movement of greater sage grouse between regions is low, then the results indicate that the local impacts of the increasing oil and gas development in Wyoming were largely compensated for by density-dependent processes, local movements of birds and/or changes in industrial practices. Regulators should account for, and predict, the effects of climate on sage grouse population fluctuations.