TY - JOUR T1 - On the relative role of different age groups during influenza A epidemics in Germany, 2002-2017 JF - bioRxiv DO - 10.1101/147066 SP - 147066 AU - Edward Goldstein Y1 - 2017/01/01 UR - http://biorxiv.org/content/early/2017/06/14/147066.abstract N2 - Background There is limited information about the role of different age groups, particularly subgroups of school-age children and younger adults in propagating influenza epidemics.Methods For a communicable disease outbreak, some subpopulations may play a disproportionate role during the ascent of the outbreak due to increased susceptibility and/or contact rates. Such subpopulations can be identified by considering the proportion that cases in a subpopulation represent among all cases in the population occurring before the epidemic peak (Bp), the corresponding proportion after the epidemic peak (Ap), to calculate the relative risk for a subpopulation, RR=Bp/Ap. We estimated RR for several age groups using data on reported influenza A cases in Germany between 2002-2017.Results Children aged 14-17y had the highest RR estimates for 7 out of 15 influenza A epidemics in the data, including the 2009 pandemic, and the large 2016/17, 2008/09, and 2006/07 seasons. Children aged 10-13y had the highest RR estimates during 3 epidemics, including the large 2014/15 and 2004/05 seasons. Children aged 6-9y had the highest RR estimates during two epidemics, including the large 2012/13 season. Children aged 2-5y had the highest RR estimate during the moderate 2015/16 season; adults aged 18-24y had the highest RR estimate during the small 2005/06 season; adults aged 25-34y had the highest RR estimate during the large, 2002/03 season.Conclusions Our results support the prominent role of all school-age children, particularly the oldest ones, in propagating influenza epidemics in the community. We note that national vaccination coverage levels among older school-age children were lower than among younger school-age children during the recent influenza seasons in the US, and influenza vaccination program in England has not been phased in yet for secondary school students. ER -